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Dear Mark: I loved your last column, the due factor. But, I have to disagree with you when it comes to blackjack. After four or five hands, I increase my bet figuring the casino can’t win forever. Slots, sure, it’s random along with the long shot odds, but blackjack operates near a 50/50 chance of me making my hand. So I’m not quite sure where random comes in. I play blackjack strictly based on the “due factor,” so when those losses appear, betting more recoup losses makes sense to me because I’ll eventually going to win. Craig H.
Let’s first agree on one thing, Craig. If something is “due” to happen, expected to happen, should happen, certain or likely to happen, it’s going to happen, sometime, sooner or later.
And happened it did just recently to me on a Delta flight to Salt Lake as I was writing this response to you for this column. A 32-year steward of the sky veteran named Laurie accidentally spilled a cup of water all over Yours Truly. Apologetic as could be, and having bestowed two extra bags of honey-roasted peanuts as compensatory damages, Laurie acknowledged, “That has never happened to me before, I guess I was due.”
So yes, Craig, the “due factor” materialized for Laurie, and I can see where after the dealer has won five hands in a row, and blackjack being a relatively even game, you think your chances of winning the next hand are better than average, so you bet a little something extra to recoup your losses.
In actuality, Craig, the cards don't give one iota that you just lost the last five hands in a row. The chances of your winning the next hand are standalone whether you lost or won the last five hands.
Yes, Craig, blackjack is nearly a 50/50 proposition, actually it’s approximately 48%, but equating blackjack with a coin flip works only over a longer gambling timeline. Over your short run of a couple hours of play, I wouldn’t bet that you are due to win based upon what has just happened in the past half dozen hands.
Nor would I bet that Laurie would spill another drink at 36,000 feet. After 32-years of I’m sure impeccable service, she’s got to be pretty close to retirement and moving to a place like Hawaii, speaking of which…
Dear Mark: I have two week trip to Oahu, Hawaii planned for this August. Any ideas or suggestions on which casino to play in would be appreciated. Doreen D.
Step one: List and hopefully sell home.
Step two: Hold a kick-butt garage sale. (Includes loads of tools I don’t have a clue how to use and a pretty sweet Toro zero-turn radius lawnmower)
Step three: Move to Waialua Bay.
Woops, for a moment there I forgot there is no casino gambling in Hawaii. Along with Utah, Doreen, Hawaii offers no form of gambling, whatsoever.
I can offer you a tip though, Doreen. If you are on the North Shore, or just around there visiting for the day, you definitely want to order Thai food at Opal’s in Haleiwa. Up front, I better tell you that it’s not going to look like much being a mobile lunch wagon in a dirt parking lot across from McDonald’s, but it's the best freakin’ Thai food you will ever eat in your whole life! I promise! This place is so damn good that you don't need to know anything about Thai food, just let Opal fix you whatever. He’ll ask you three or four like and dislike questions, and presto, Thai cuisine at it’s best.
Oh, and one more thing. The casino industry could learn a thing or two from Opal’s customer service. Wearing a "certified friendly" button on a lapel as I once did doesn’t always cut it. Opal oozes customer service, like no one I’ve ever seen.
Mahalo and aloha, Opal.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: “I have lost enough money to build a casino.” —Samuel Lewis, rueful nineteenth-century gambler
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